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  Industry Trends

Trends

May - April

 

Clear, which operates security fast lanes at 15 U.S. airports to members who sign up for its service and are pre-screened by the Transportation Security Administration, says its members have now made one million trips through its Clear lanes since the program began in July, 2005. 05-08-2008.

In an email to industry, Ed Iacobucci, the president and CEO of VLJ (very light jet) air-taxi operator DayJet, wrote: "Effective this week, we've made the difficult decision to scale back DayJet's 2008 growth plan," and added that "the company has reduced its employee base across most areas of its business."  He blamed the situation on external economic factors, and insisted that the action is not a reflection of a weakness in the underlying DayJet business model.  Mr. Iacobucci defended his company's business model by saying, "Our first phase of operations, the 'proof-of-concept phase,' has gone exceptionally well.... We answered many nagging questions: yes, customers will fly in a small jet; customers will embrace the per-seat model; customers will pay a premium for tangible value; and the technology works as planned.  Most importantly, yes, we can find these customers. All in all, we've signed more than 1,500 members, of which more than 550 are active travelers; nearly 200 are frequent flyers."  05-08-2008.

Air-taxi operator, SATSair, said its on-demand services had strong financials and growth in 2007, and the trend is continuing this year.  SATSair experienced more than 60% growth in the number of flights from 2006 to 2007. The air cab operation flew more than 16,000 flights and landed in 27 states in 2007, and ended the year with over six million passenger miles flown since the company's inception in November 2004. SATSair, which operates Cirrus SR22s, currently serves more than 600 airports throughout the Southeast with nearly 90 percent of the company's business originating in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.  05-08-2008.
 

NATS handled 196,304 flights in March, a decrease of 0.3% compared with the same month last year. (This reflects the impact of the Easter holiday period which occurred in March this year as opposed to April last year. The Easter weekend normally sees lower traffic volumes.)  Traffic for the year to date increased by 1.6% compared to 3.6% recorded for the same period last year. En route traffic handled by London Terminal Control in March decreased by 1.5%, and London Area Control increased by 0.3%.  Scottish Area Control Centre at Prestwick handled 1.7% and Oceanic had 5% more. 04-30-2008.

Nav Canada's March 2008 traffic increased by an average of 5.8% compared to the same month in 2007. Fiscal year-to-date traffic was 6.4% than in fiscal year 2007. Nav Canada's fiscal year runs from September 1 to August 31. 04-30-2008.
 

Statistics from the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board show that in 2007, there were 24 nonfatal accidents involving Part 121 airlines (aircraft with 10 or more seats). No fatalities occurred among Part 135 commuter operators (fewer than 10 seats).  However, on-demand (charters, air taxis, air tours and medical services when a patient is on board) Part 135 operations reported 43 fatalities (62 accidents, 14 fatal accidents), up from the 16 fatalities that occurred in 2006. While the overall number of general aviation accidents rose from 1,518 in 2006 to 1,631 in 2007, the number of fatalities in 2007 was down from 703 to 491 (a 30 percent decrease), making it the lowest annual total in more than 40 years. Foreign registered aircraft accounted for 11 accidents in the U.S. in 2007, with three fatalities from a single fatal accident.  Of the 14 accidents involving unregistered aircraft, six were fatal and resulted in seven fatalities. More information is available at http://www.ntsb.gov/aviation/Stats.htm.  04-22-2008.

Airports Council International (ACI) reports that passenger demand rose strongly in February with PaxFlash and FreightFlash participants reporting a 6% increase compared to February 2007. International passenger traffic posted growth rising by almost 10% while domestic was up by 4%. The first two months of 2008 show an overall 5% rise in traffic, with international traffic up by 8% and domestic up by 2%.

Total worldwide freight in February 2008 increased 4% compared to February 2007, with international freight increasing 6%, and domestic freight decreasing by 1%.  The first two months of 2008 show total freight rising by almost 5% with international up by 7%, and little change in domestic freight.  04-22-2008.

The U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) said its reporting airlines carried 0.4% more domestic passengers and 4.9% more international passengers in January 2008 than in January 2007. The carriers operated 863,000 domestic and international flights in January 2008, 1.5% fewer than in January 2007. Domestic fights were down 1.7% from January of the previous year while international flights were up 1.0%.

System Wide

In other total system comparisons from January 2007 to January 2008:

  • RPMs (revenue passenger miles) were up 2.6%.

  • ASMs (available seat-miles) were up 1.8%.

  • Passenger load factor was up 0.6 load factor points.

Domestic

In other domestic comparisons from January 2007 to January 2008:

  • RPMs were up 0.9%.

  • ASMs were unchanged.

  • Passenger load factor was up 0.6 load factor points to 72.9%.

Domestic flight stage length, the average non-stop distance flown per departure, was up 2.2 percent in January 2008.

International

  • RPMs were up 6.6%.

  • ASMs were up 6.1%.

  • Passenger load factor was up 0.4 load factor points to 76.5.

Additional traffic numbers are available at http://transtats.bts.gov. 04-22-2008.
 

Era Corporationn says it has delivered its 1,500th Squid vehicle tracking unit.  The landmark delivery was to NATS for use at London's Gatwick Airport.  04-10-2008.

Embraer reports that during the first quarter of 2008, it delivered 38 jets to the airline market and seven to business jet customers. After delivering a record number of aircraft in 2007, Embraer is maintaining its production rate at 14 jets per month. The company confirms it will deliver between 195 and 200 regional jets, along with 10 to 15 Phenom 100 executive jets in 2008. 04-10-2008.

Boeing said its first quarter commercial plane deliveries rose 8.5%, with 115 commercial planes going to customers in the first three months of this year, up from 106 a year earlier.  04-10-2008.

The U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) says the 20 carriers reporting on-time performance recorded an overall on-time arrival rate of 68.6% in February, up from February 2007's 67.3%, but below January 2008's 72.4%.

The carriers reported that 9.36% of their flights were delayed by aviation system delays, compared to 8.42% in January; 9.74% by late-arriving aircraft, compared to 8.41% in January; 7.11% by factors within the airline's control, such as maintenance or crew problems, compared to 6.79% in January; 1.19% by extreme weather, compared to 0.88% in January; and 0.05% for security reasons, compared to 0.07% in January.

(Weather is a factor in both the extreme-weather category and the aviation-system category. This includes delays due to the re-routing of flights by the FAA in consultation with the carriers involved.  Weather is also a factor in delays attributed to late-arriving aircraft, although airlines do not report specific causes in that category.)

In February, 46.92% of late flights were delayed by weather, up 22.83% from February 2007, when 38.20% of late flights were delayed by weather, and up 7.71% from January when 43.56% of late flights were delayed by weather.

Detailed information is available at http://www.bts.gov.  04-10-2008.

The Association of European Airlines reported its member's traffic in February, measured in passenger-km, increased by 6.0% and their capacity (seat-km) by 8.6%.  Factored back to 28 days, to compensate for the extra leap-year day, these increases become 2.3% and 4.9% respectively. The corresponding figures for January were 2.8% and 4.5%. The most significant increase was a 10.3% increase in cross-border traffic within Europe.  South Atlantic traffic returned to a modest growth level of 6.5% while North Atlantic traffic was up 5.6%. Growth on Far Eastern routes was 3.6%. 04-10-2008.
 

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) downgraded its industry profit expectations for 2008 to US$4.5 billion based on largely global economic growth slowing to 2.6% and an average annualized oil price of US$86 per barrel (Brent Crude). This is the second downgrading of the 2008 forecast.  In September 2007 IATA predicted a US$7.8 billion profit for this year. The initial impact of the credit crunch saw that lowered to US$5.0 billion in December 2007. Regionally, IATA is forecasting the following changes:

  • North America: US$1.8 billion (down from US$2.8 billion in 2007).

  • Europe: US$1.8 billion (down from US$2.1 billion in 2007).

  • Asia Pacific: US$900 million (constant from 2007).

  • Middle East: US$200 million (down from US$300 million in 2007).

  • Latin America: Break-even (compared to a US$100 million loss in 2007).

  • Africa: US$300 million loss (improved from the US$400 million loss in 2007).

·    04-02-2008.

Nav Canada said its February 2008 traffic in increased by an average of 11.6% compared to the same month in 2007. Fiscal year-to-date traffic was 6.5% higher than in fiscal year 2007. Nav Canada’s fiscal year runs from September 1 to August 31. 04-02-2008.

Eurocontrol has downgraded its forecast of 2008 European traffic growth to 4.1% from earlier predictions of 4.4% to 4.5%. 04-02-2008.

According to a recent forecast released by The Boyd Group, the industry will see accelerated retirements of regional aircraft with fewer than 50 seats in favor of larger ones over the next five years, partly because of high fuel costs and a possible economic recession.  04-02-2008.

Embraer delivered a record 169 aircraft in 2007 and expects to deliver between 195 and 200 aircraft this year.  04-02-2008.
 
 
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