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  Industry Trends

Trends

January

 

Cessna delivered 1,274 aircraft in 2007 including first deliveries of its newly acquired Cessna 350 and 400 single-engine pistons, from Columbia Aircraft, the all-new Citation Mustang entry level jet and the upgraded Citation Encore+ business jet.  During the year, Cessna delivered 387 business jets, 80 turboprops and 807 piston aircraft.  In 2006, the company recorded deliveries of 307 business jets, 67 turboprops and 865 piston aircraft. The company plans to deliver 470 business jets in 2008.  01-30-2008.

The Robinson Helicopter Company says it manufactured 823 new helicopters in 2007, the most civil helicopters ever produced in a single year by one company. The industry record was 806 previously set by Robinson in 2005.  Robinson also broke the record for production of a single helicopter model in one year, producing 664 R44s. The prior record, also set by Robinson, was 563 R44s in 2005.  The company produced 159 R22s in 2007.  01-30-2008.

ATR received orders for 113 new aircraft in 2007, which was a single year record since the beginning of the ATR program.  The company delivered 44 new aircraft in 2007 versus 24 in 2006, thus representing a production increase of over 80%. From the beginning of the ATR program through 31st December 2007, the company has delivered 397 ATR 42s and 360 ATR 72s.  ATR has a backlog of 195 aircraft through 31st December 2007, an increase of some 120% compared to 2005. It plans to deliver more than 60 new aircraft in 2008.  01-30-2008.

Eurocopter said it recorded 802 orders worth $9.5 billion (€6.58 billion) in 2007, a new record, and its backlog now stands at a record $20 billion (€13.5 billion). The French-German company's best seller is the Ecureuil/EC 130 line, 325 of which were ordered, including military versions. The EC 135 light-twin helicopter is the next best-selling, with 134 sales during 2007.  Eurocopter delivered 488 helicopters last year, a 28-percent leap from 2006.  01-30-2008.

Bombardier said it will offer a next-generation, all-composite Learjet 85 for the midsize jet market. The aircraft will become the first Part 25 business jet with an all-composite structure, including its wings.  Grob Aerospace will develop the jet's primary and secondary structure and build the first three prototypes.  01-30-2008.

The Air Transport Association of America's composite cost index, for the third quarter of 2007, rose to 191.2, up 0.2% from the third quarter of 2006, in contrast to a 2.4% increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). The three largest components of the index – which includes all operating expenses as well as interest expense – were fuel (25.9%), labor (22.8%) and transport-related expenses (13.3%). Other year-over-year highlights include:

  • The average price paid for fuel increased 1.6% to $2.11 per gallon.

  • The average cost of employing a full-time equivalent worker increased $709 to $76,423.

  • Maintenance material costs increased by 15.3%.

  • Aircraft insurance costs declined 16.4%.

  • Other insurance costs declined 17.4%.

  • Overall unit operating cost per available seat mile was unchanged at 12.49 cents.

  • The average break-even load factor (BELF) dropped 1.3 points to 76.6%.

01-30-2008.

 

Airbus posted orders for 1,341 aircraft in 2007, which were valued at USD$157.1 billion at list prices.  The company's backlog stood at 3,421 planes or six years of production. The airframer said its 2007 deliveries reached a record 453 aircraft, topping its forecast of 440 to 450 planes. For 2008, Airbus expects a drop in orders but deliveries above 470 aircraft, including 13 A380s. Airbus received 290 orders for the A350 XWB in 2007, which brought its total orders to 292 aircraft. Sales chief John Leahy predicted more than 100 A350 orders in 2008 and 30 orders for the A380.  01-23-2008.

T.K. Kallenbach, vice president of marketing and product management for Honeywell Aerospace, told Bloomberg.net that sales of Honeywell's RAAS (runway awareness and advisory system) increased 50% in 2007 from a year earlier, and are "accelerating."  Revenue from safety systems, including RAAS, was about $667 million in 2006 and may climb by 15% to 20% annually, said Scott Davis, an analyst with Morgan Stanley in New York.  01-23-2008.

In his outlook for 2008, John Heimlich, ATA's chief economist, predicts that "ongoing passenger and cargo revenue strength – particularly in the international arena – will help offset a sizeable increase in fuel expenses and a modest increase in nonfuel expense, enabling the industry to post a $3.5 to $4.5 billion net profit. This would make 2006-2008 the airlines' first profitability 'three-peat' since 1998-2000…. All signs point to another year of improving fuel efficiency, despite air traffic congestion and resultant taxi-out and airborne delays." 01-23-2008.

NetJets Europe says it's accelerating the delivery schedule for 39 new business jets so that all will occur this year. The new aircraft will increase NetJets Europe's fleet by 29 percent, to a total of 174 aircraft, eclipsing the division's 18% fleet growth last year. The division's shareowners took 73,622 flights last year, an increase of more than 17% from 2006; its flight activity has increased by 55% since 2005; and its number of customers now exceeds 1,500.  01-23-2008.

The per-seat, on-demand air taxi operator, DayJet added Naples, Florida, and Savannah, Georgia, as DayPorts, augmenting its five initial Florida airports served at Boca Raton, Gainesville, Lakeland, Pensacola and Tallahassee.  In addition, the company added 12 new DayStops in Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. The very- light-jet operator launched its service in October, 2007, and now serves 45 destinations across the Southeast with its current fleet of 28 Eclipse 500s.  01-23-2008.
 

According to an annual summary of accidents and incidents released by Robert E. Breiling Associates, business aviation experienced 56 accidents and incidents in 2007, compared to 60 in 2006, but fatal accidents involving U.S.-registered business jets and turboprops increased to 18 in 2007 from 17 in 2006. The number of fatalities also increased in 2007 to 53, from 38 in 2006.    Among business jets, the fleet experienced 27 accidents in 2007, compared with 28 in 2006, but the number of fatal accidents increased from four in 2006 to five in 2007, and the number of fatalities also increased, from eight in 2006 to 14 in 2007. The number of business turboprop accidents decreased from 32 accidents in 2006 to 29 in 2007.  The number of fatal turboprop accidents stayed the same, at 13, but the number of turboprop fatalities increased from 30 in 2006 to 39 last year.  01-16-2008.

Eurocontrol's analysis of traffic and delays in Europe in 2007 shows that:

  • The number of flights was 10 million, an all-time high, and an increase of 5.3% from 2006.

  • Average daily traffic was 27,676 flights a day compared to 26,286 in 2006.

  • Traffic growth was strongest in Eastern Europe, with several states seeing growth near 20%.

  • Growth was driven mainly by low cost carriers, which saw an increase of 25% on the year as a whole and business aviation with 10%, between them accounting for nearly all the net new flights.

  • On average 11% of flights were delayed, compared to slightly fewer than 10% of flights delayed in 2006.

  • Air traffic flow management delays increased from an average of 1.9 minutes per flight in 2006 to 2.1 minutes per flight in 2007.

01-16-2008.

FlightStats.com's  review of the 28 largest U.S. airports shows a considerable decline in timely flight arrivals in 2007 compared to 2006.  Out of 6 million flights at the 28 airports, 4.3 million, or 71.65%, arrived on time, which was nearly 5 percentage points less than the 2006 yearly numbers for the same airports.  Cancelled flights at the nation largest airports from January 1 through December 31st totaled 130,575, or 2.16% of all flights.  Perhaps more significant is that 11.2% of all flights were delayed on arrival by more than 45 minutes, FlightStats says. 01-16-2008.

The U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported that U.S. airlines carried 3.5% more domestic passengers and 4.5% more international passengers during the first 10 months of 2007 than during the same period in 2006. In October, U.S. airlines carried 64.1 million scheduled domestic and international passengers, 4.0% more than in October 2006. The number of domestic passengers increased 3.7% in October from a year earlier and international passengers increased 6.1%.

Flights Operated

U.S. carriers operated 8.9 million domestic and international flights in the first 10 months of 2007, 0.9% more than were operated during the same period in 2006.  Domestic flights increased 0.9% from the previous year while international flights were up 0.6%. In October, U.S. airlines operated 902,200 scheduled domestic and international flights, up 0.9% from the number of flights operated in October 2006.  The number of domestic flights increased 1.0% in October from a year earlier while international flights increased 0.7%.

Total System Comparisons

  • RPMs (revenue passenger miles) were up 4.1% in the first 10 months of 2007.  In October, RPMs were up 5.0%.

  • ASMs (available seat miles) were up 2.9% in the first 10 months of 2007.   In October, ASMs were up 3.1%.

  • Passenger load factor was up 0.9 load factor points to 80.5% in the first 10 months of 2007.   In October, load factor was up 1.3 load factor points to 78.6%..

Domestic Comparisons

U.S. airlines carried 570.2 million scheduled domestic passengers during the first 10 months of 2007, up 3.5% from the 551.0 million carried during the same period in 2006.  The passengers were carried on 8.2 million flights, up 0.9% from the number of flights operated in 2006.  In October, the airlines carried 57.2 million scheduled domestic passengers, up 3.7% from the passengers carried during October 2006.  The passengers were carried on 836,100 flights, up 1.0% from the 828,100 flights operated in October 2006.

  • RPMs were up 3.3% in the first 10 months of 2007.  In October, RPMs were up 4.1%.

  • ASMs were up 1.9% in the first 10 months of 2007.  In October, ASMs were up 2.8%.

  • Passenger load factor was up 1.1 load factor points to 80.6% in the first 10 months of 2007.  In October, load factor was up 1.1 load factor points to 78.6%..

International Comparisons

U.S. airlines carried 76.0 million scheduled international passengers during the first 10 months of 2007, up 4.5% from the 72.7 million carried during the same period in 2006.  The passengers were carried on 718,600 flights, up 0.6% the 714,100 flights operated in 2006.  In October, the airlines carried 7.0 million scheduled international passengers, up 6.1% from the passengers carried during October 2006.  The passengers were carried on 66,200 flights, up 0.7% from the 65,700 flights operated in October 2006.

In other international comparisons from the first 10 months of 2006 to the first 10 months of 2007 and from October 2006 to October 2007:

  • RPMs were up 6.0% in the first 10 months of 2007.  In October, RPMs were up 7.4%.

  • ASMs were up 5.3% in the first 10 months of 2007.  In October, ASMs were up 4.1%.

  • Passenger load factor was up 0.6 load factor points to 80.3% in the first 10 months of 2007.  In October, load factor was up 2.2 load factor points to 79.1%.

More information can be found on the BTS Website.  01-16-2008.

Nav Canada said its revenues for the three months ended November 30, 2007, were $300 million, compared to $299 million for the comparable period in 2006.  Operating expenses were $ 234 million which was $ 2 million higher than last year.  01-16-2008.

Embraer says it delivered a record 169 planes in 2007.  Its previous record was 161 planes in 2001, before September 11, 2001.  The Brazilian manufacturer expects total deliveries to jump to between 205 and 215 planes in 2008 and to between 315 and 350 in 2009, due to a demand for its new Phenom executive jets.   01-16-2008.
 

Boeingng says it recorded 1,413 net commercial airplane orders during 2007, reaching more than 1,000 orders for an unprecedented third consecutive year, and setting a Boeing record for total orders in a single year. The company also set new order records for the 787, the 737, and for Boeing freighters.  The 2007 total surpasses Boeing's previous records of 1,044 net orders in 2006 and the 1,002 orders set in 2005.  Gross orders in 2007, which exclude cancellations and conversions, totaled 1,423. Boeing recorded 1,050 gross orders in 2006 and 1,029 gross orders in 2005.

The company's 737 set a third consecutive sales record, with net orders of 846 airplanes. The previous record totals for a single year for the 737 program were 729 net orders in 2006 and 569 net orders in 2005.  Boeing freighters also had a third consecutive record sales year, with 83 gross orders in 2007, compared with gross orders for 81 freighters in 2006 and 74 freighters in 2005.

Boeing's 777 orders marked the second strongest year in program history, with 141 net orders in 2007. The 747 program finished the year with 21 net orders, and the 767 program had 36 net orders.  01-08-2007.

The U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) says the 20 carriers reporting on-time performance recorded an overall on-time arrival rate of 80.0% in November, better than both November 2006's 76.5% and October 2007's 78.2%.  The reporting carriers canceled 1.0% of their scheduled flights in November, down from both November 2006's cancellation rate of 1.6% and October 2007's 1.2%.

Causes of Flight Delays

The carriers reported that 6.77% of their November flights were delayed by aviation system delays, compared to 7.54% in October; 6.07% by late-arriving aircraft, compared to 6.62% in October; 5.39% by factors within the airline's control, such as maintenance or crew problems, compared to 5.63% in October; 0.51% by extreme weather, compared to 0.64% in October; and 0.04% for security reasons, compared to 0.05% in October.

(Weather is a factor in both the extreme-weather category and the aviation-system category, and includes delays due to the re-routing of flights by DOT's Federal Aviation Administration in consultation with the carriers involved. Weather is also a factor in delays attributed to late-arriving aircraft, although airlines do not report specific causes in that category. Data collected by BTS also shows the percentage of late flights delayed by weather, including those reported in either the category of extreme weather or included in National Aviation System delays.)

In November, 37.82% of late flights were delayed by weather, down 7.12% from November 2006, when 40.72% of late flights were delayed by weather, and down 5.05% from October when 39.83% of late flights were delayed by weather.

Detailed information on flight delays and their causes is available on the BTS site on the World Wide Web at http://www.bts.gov.  01-08-2007.

Eclipse Aviation says it has produced and certified 104 Eclipse 500 VLJs (very light jets) since December 31, 2006, making it the fastest general aviation jet aircraft manufacturer in history to produce its first 100 airplanes. Most of these – 103 aircraft – were completed in 2007. Previously, the fastest ramp to 100 aircraft was achieved by Cessna, which reached 100 Cessna Citation 550 aircraft after approximately 18 months, according to Eclipse.  01-08-2007.

ICAO reports its 2007 preliminary figures indicate that passenger traffic on the world's airlines increased by about 6.6% compared to 2006, in terms of passenger-kilometers performed.  International passenger traffic grew at a marginally lower rate of 7.3% in 2007 compared to 7.6% in 2006.  European traffic grew by 6.4%; Asia/Pacific by 6.6%; North America by 5.5%, the Middle Eastern Region by almost 19%; and Latin America and Africa by 5.8 and 6.8%, respectively.  In general, traffic growth in 2007 outpaced the increase in seat capacity offered, with the global passenger load factor reaching almost 76.5%, up from approximately 75.8% in 2006.  01-08-2008.

AOPA's Nall Report says there were 6.32 accidents for every 100,000 hours flown in 2006 compared to 7.19 in 1997, making 2006 the safest year ever for general aviation, and continuing an overall positive trend. While there's been an increase in the number of weather-related accidents, other categories are generally declining.  01-08-2008.
 
 
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