Airbus Sees Demand for 24,300 new Aircraft over Next 20 Years

Airbus sees a demand for about 24,300 new passenger and freighter aircraft between now and 2026, creating an average annual delivery rate of 1,215 aircraft; up from its 2007 forecast of 1,130 average deliveries per year.

Also, according to its latest Global Market Forecast (GMF), Airbus sees a demand for more fuel and eco-efficient airliners to replace older-generation, less-efficient aircraft.

The GMF expects passenger traffic to grow at an average rate of 4.9% per year, leading to a near threefold increase in the forecast period.  Part of this passenger increase will be absorbed by higher load factors as well as larger, more productive equipment and increased frequencies, Airbus believes. But even so, the greater passenger demand will cause the world's airlines to more than double their passenger aircraft fleets of 100 seats or more during the forecast period, from some 13,300 today to some 28,550 in 2026. This increase together with a forecast replacement of close to 8,150 older aircraft means a total of nearly 24,300 new passenger aircraft worth US$ 2.6 trillion will be needed, the GMF predicts.

Air freight is forecast to grow even faster, with FTKs (freight tonne kilometers) increasing annually by 5.8%.  Combined with fleet renewal, this will create demand for some 3,800 freighter deliveries, of which nearly 900, worth US $ 200 billion, will be new production models.

The greatest demand for passenger aircraft will be from the Asia-Pacific region, which will account for 31% of the total world demand for aircraft, followed by North America (27%) and Europe (24%).

Airbus forecasts that populations and the number of the world's largest cities will continue to grow, resulting in further congestion at their airports. Because of this, Airbus foresees a demand for some 1,700 VLA (very large aircraft) seating more than 400 passengers, like the A380, which will make up seven percent of the new aircraft delivered.  Of these, nearly 1,300 will be passenger aircraft and another 400 or so will be freighters able to transport over 120 tonnes of payload.  By 2026, almost two thirds of all VLAs will serve today's 32 mega-hub cities, with Asia-Pacific being the dominant region requiring more than 700 passenger VLAs or 56% of world demand. Twelve of the top 20 large airports for VLA operations will be located in the region.

Demand for twin-aisle aircraft (seating from 250 to 400 passengers) will continue to grow strongly with some 6,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft being delivered in the next two decades.  Demand in the 250-to-300 seat, or small twin-aisle, market will total more than 4,000 new aircraft. Another 2,000 larger intermediate twin aisles will be needed in the 350-to-400 seat category.

More than 16,600 aircraft or 68% of all deliveries in the next 20 years will be single-aisle aircraft, according to the GMF. The demand for these aircraft will be in large part from North America with 32% of the deliveries, followed by Asia-Pacific (26%), Europe (25%) and the rest of the world 17%.  02-12-2008.

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